Good Decisions
Given the number of decisions we make all the time, you’d think we would be good at it by now. Unfortunately, decision-making is still one of the hardest things for most groups (and individuals, for that matter) to do effectively. At the core, decisions are scary things. In an ideal world, we would weigh the pros and cons, everyone would agree, and a clear winner would emerge. In the real world, we often have to make big decisions on limited information in limited time.
In other words, most decisions involve risk and uncertainty – two things that make mere mortals run for their lives. Throw in a group process, with all the complexity of human emotions, and you have a potentially explosive situation on your hands.
Here are 10 steps to better decision-making. I can’t guarantee that it will make all your decisions easy, but at the very least it will help you avoid about 90% of the needless drama that usually comes with making a decision.
1. Why are we deciding?
Pick one: red or blue? In the abstract, who could possibly say? Are we picking our favourite colours? Are we deciding what the most relaxing colour for a room is? Is the question what colour should the stop sign be or what colour the blueberry ice cream should be? The irony is that most people spend a big chunk of time clarifying a vision and creating a strategic plan for accomplishing it, and then completely forget all about it when it comes to making a decision. In most cases, si will avoid a tremendous amount of confusion and unproductive debate. So, always start by contextualizing the decision in the larger goals and missions of the project and where you are in the process of accomplishing it. This can also avoid those three-week long battle-royal over what colour the post-it notes should be – because, in the larger context you will realize many of these minor details aren’t that big a deal.
2. What would a good decision look like?
Now that we know why we are deciding, we are already half-way towards identifying the criteria that would make a good decision. In general terms, good decisions advance your goals and desired outcomes, make sense to key stakeholders, and minimize unintended consequences. Take the time to list specific criteria that will make some choices better candidates than others. In complex matters, you may even want to prioritize and weight different criteria and use them later in the process. As always, keep the list as simple as possible, make sure the criteria are measurable in some way (even if that’s just the “gut feeling” of those in the room) and actually help to differentiate the various choices. A criterion that describes all the candidates equally well won’t help you make a decision.
3. What are the risks of a less-than-perfect decision?
OK, here is the first hard truth: there are NO perfect decisions. Decisions are always about some unknowable future. Since most of our crystal balls are in the shop, let go of the idea of perfection when answering this question. Now, the good news – there is often a lot less risk than we think there is. This is simply a function of the human imagination: we are really great at thinking of worst-case scenarios. In fact, even when we aren’t consciously thinking about them, our subconscious is busy whispering these doom-and-gloom tales to us and that is where a big chunk of that nameless fear that accompanies any decision comes from. Simply using your rational mind to lay out the real risks of a less-than-perfect decision will help you dispel some of that ambient fear and make more perfect decisions. In complex cases you may even want to evaluate different options based on their specific risks.
4. What is the cost of not deciding?
In many groups, decision-making turns into analysis paralysis. The fear of “getting it wrong” overwhelms the group and causes them to freeze like a deer in the headlights. This tendency needs to be balanced by a clear understanding that not deciding is a decision, often with more dire consequences of making a less-than-perfect positive decision. Take a minute to highlight the risks and costs involved in not deciding as a way to balance the risks of a less-than-perfect decision. And remember, if it weren’t for the last minute, nothing would get done.
5. What are the available options?
This may sound silly, but also take the time to list what the actual choices are for the decision. I have been involved in some groups that ended up debating the merits or costs of options that were fundamentally impossible. This frequently happens when groups get lost debating how it might work in some ideal future world. While those debates can be fun over a bottle of wine, they aren’t usually helpful when actually making a decision.
6. Who should decide?
Again, this is a balance question. In the abstract, the more people and perspectives considered in a decision, the better. You will have more information and more buy-in for actually implementing the decision. However, more people also means more time, complexity, and potential for conflict. As a rule, you want to delegate decisions to the smallest group possible given the level of risk and complexity of the decision. In some cases, this means you give individuals in the group the authority to make relatively simple, low-risk decisions. Sometimes, you delegate the job to sub-groups. You may also include different people in different roles, some providing advice or opinions, while others retain formal decision-making authority.
Remember, the ultimate authority always lies in the group as a whole. The group then can choose to delegate (on a case-by-case or continuous basis) work to subgroups or individuals when appropriate to maximize the effectiveness of the group. As always, when delegating, providing a clear mandate and level of delegation (from 1 to 7) is essential.
7. What do we need to know to make a good decision?
Now we have a clear context, a list of viable solutions, clear criteria, and a decision-making body, we are ready to start deliberating. The first question is: what do we need to know to make a good decision? How do each of the options do in each criteria (including risks)? Do we know enough to assess each candidate? Do we need more information and, if so, how will we get it? The key here is to remain focused on what we need to know. It is easy to delude ourselves into believing that if only we knew everything, we could finally make a perfect decision. See #3 above.
8. What is unknowable?
Time for hard truth #2 – we have to make decisions even if we don’t know what we need to know. At some point, the cost of not deciding is greater than deciding with partial information. That’s life. This will never be easy, but it can be easier when you consciously recognize the fact by listing what it is you wish you did know but can’t. You can also use this information to improve your decision making by thinking about how you might stage a decision so that it tests your assumptions and moves forward in stages.
9. What is the best tool for making the decision?
Now we are finally ready for making a decision. This is where various tools come in from formal consensus processes, to voting, to criteria evaluations, to informal ‘sense of the room’ decisions – even flipping a coin will work just fine in some cases. Just as with deciding on who should be involved, deciding how to make the decision should be based on the risk and complexity of the decision to be made. In important, complex, high-risk decisions, complex, large-group, consensus or multi-voting processes may be called for. However, as a rule, the process should be kept as simple as possible for the risk and complexity involved.
10. How long will this decision last? Can we revisit the decision?
Finally, consider how long a decision should last. Nothing lasts forever, not even a decision. Conditions change and membership changes. It is only reasonable that any decision is open for reconsideration at some point. However, beware buyer’s remorse. It is also natural for people to reconsider some decisions, even if they are the best possible decision you could make at the time. As a group, discuss if it is reasonable to include a scheduled review period for important decisions and/or if some important decisions should have a “sleep on it” period to allow people a chance to reconsider their positions. Of course, as in all things, this is a careful balancing act.
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